PAL US EQUITY SIGNALS
Forward Track Record
Every signal. Every outcome. Nothing hidden.
A prospective record built only from PAL signals generated after the forward start date. Historical research is kept separate.
CURRENT FORWARD STATE
Performance snapshot
Shadow acceptance0 / 10 sessions
PROSPECTIVE RECORD
The first accepted US market session has not been recorded yet. Statistics will populate only from genuine forward observations.
Open Signals0
Closed Signals0
First Milestone Reached0
Avg. Holding Period—
FORWARD HISTORY
The record grows one market session at a time.
Each accepted market date is stored once. A conflicting rerun cannot silently replace an earlier statistical record.
FORWARD HISTORYChart begins after two recorded market sessions.
The series will grow automatically from the append-only daily statistics history.
DAILY RECORD
Recorded market sessions
Latest 12 sessions shown. The underlying append-only history remains preserved from the first forward day.
No forward sessions recorded yet.The table will populate automatically after the first accepted Daily Run.
HISTORICAL MODEL RESEARCH
Different management choices change the outcome.
PAL keeps one official model for a coherent track record. The comparison below is descriptive development research, not an instruction to manage a position in a particular way.
PRIMARY HISTORICAL VIEW · 2009 & 2020 EXCLUDED
Those two recovery years produced unusually concentrated PAL opportunity. We exclude them from the primary comparison so exceptional recoveries do not dominate the headline view.
| Historical metric | Official PAL model 25 / 25 / 50 | Higher-runner reference 25 / 75 |
|---|---|---|
| First-milestone rate | 66.55% | 66.55% |
| Profit factor | 1.65 | 1.84 |
| Mean trade return | +6.39% | +8.94% |
| Median trade return | −4.25% | −7.34% |
| Positive outcome rate | 44.25% | 38.41% |
| Trades ≥ +50% | 8.85% | 12.04% |
| Trades ≥ +100% | 3.36% | 5.66% |
WHAT CHANGES
Realized profit vs. runner exposure
Records 25% at the first milestone, another 25% at the second milestone and leaves 50% in the runner. Historically this increased the median outcome and reduced giveback, while giving up part of the largest right-tail moves.
Records 25% at the first milestone and keeps 75% in the runner. Historically this produced the higher Profit Factor and mean return, but exposed more of an already successful position to later giveback.
PAL statistics must follow one fixed accounting path. A market participant may independently choose a different allocation or management approach. PAL does not individualize that choice.
ADDITIONAL CONTEXT
In the 2018–2022 validation block, historical Profit Factor was 5.03 for the official 25/25/50 model and 5.65 for the higher-runner reference. In the full 2005–2022 cash-only 5% portfolio replay, CAGR was 8.13% vs. 8.69%, while max drawdown was −39.70% vs. −44.83%. These figures include 2009 and 2020 and are shown only as secondary context.
These figures come from the PAL development research benchmark used for model selection. They are not the live broker-neutral NASDAQ+NYSE forward record, are subject to survivorship and retrospective-selection bias, and do not predict future results.
METHODOLOGY
What these numbers mean
Only signals dated on or after Sep 03, 2026 enter the prospective record. Historical research never enters forward statistics.
The forward result uses PAL’s fixed 25/25/50 accounting model. An internal higher-runner benchmark is tracked separately and never mixed into official performance.
An open signal is not classified as a win, loss or progress failure merely because its lifecycle is incomplete.
PAL does not display an artificial infinity. Profit Factor remains undefined until a realized losing trade exists.
The daily aggregate history is append-only. Published forward outcomes remain part of the record.
No promises.
No hidden losers.
Just the record.